The US election could create global ripples as well, and very soon. US negotiators will meet with their counterparts at the annual UN climate conference that kicks off next week. With Trump set to move back into the White House in January, they will have little credibility or leverage to nudge other nations to step up their commitments to reduce emissions.
But those are just some of the direct ways that a second Trump administration will enfeeble the nation’s ability to drive down emissions, and counter the growing dangers of climate change. He also has considerable power to stall the economy and sow international chaos amid a moment of escalating conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
Trump’s eagerness to enact tariffs, slash government spending, and deport major portions of the workforce may stunt growth, drive up inflation, and chill investment. All of that would make it far more difficult for companies to raise the capital and purchase the components needed to build anything in the US, whether wind turbines, solar farms, and seawalls, or buildings, bridges, and data centers.
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His clumsy handling of the economy and international affairs may also help China extend its dominance in producing and selling the components of the energy transition, including batteries, EVs, and solar panels, to customers around the globe.
If one job of a commentator is to find some perspective in difficult moments, I admit I’m mostly failing in this one.
The best I can do is to say that there will be some meaningful lines of defense. For now at least, state leaders and legislatures can continue to enact and implement stronger climate rules. Other nations could step up their efforts to cut emissions and assert themselves as global leaders on climate.
The private industry will likely continue to invest in and build businesses in climate tech and clean energy, since solar, wind, batteries and EVs have proven themselves as competitive industries. And technological progress can occur no matter who is sitting in the round room on Pennsylvania Avenue, as researchers continue striving to develop cleaner, cheaper ways of producing our energy, food, and goods.
By any measure, the job of addressing climate change is now much harder. Nothing, however, has changed about the stakes.
Our world doesn’t end if we surpass 2˚ C, 2.5 ˚C, or even 3 ˚C, but it will steadily become a more dangerous and erratic place. Every tenth of a degree remains worth fighting for—whether in two, four, or a dozen years from now—because every bit of warming that nations pull together to prevent eases future suffering somewhere.
So as the shock wears off and the despair begins to lift, the core task before us remains the same: to push for progress, whenever, wherever, and however we can.
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